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BATTLE FOR U.S. SENATE EVENLY MATCHED

The following piece by Will Lester appeared on AP Online on Sunday, January 13, 2002.

       
    WASHINGTON (AP) - The contest to win control of the Senate is
    extraordinarily evenly matched at the start of this election year and
    hinges on races in about a dozen states.

    Democrats have only a one-vote lead in the Senate, meaning the
    overall outcome could be decided by a single campaign mistake or
    external factors like the economy.

    Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle launched the political season
    earlier this month with a speech strongly criticizing President Bush's
    stewardship of the economy. The president fired back that his economic
    proposals, which emphasize more tax cuts, are the best approach and he
    promised to block any efforts to raise taxes.

    The power struggle between Bush and Daschle, a potential Democratic
    presidential candidate in 2004, is exemplified by the competitive race
    in Daschle's home state.

    Democrat Tim Johnson, the state's junior senator, will get heavy
    support from Daschle against Republican John Thune, the state's lone
    congressman heavily recruited to the Senate race by the White House.

    The handful of races considered tossups by most political analysts
    are evenly split between Democratic incumbents and Republican
    incumbents.

    "We have six tossup races," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate
    races for the Cook Political Report. "That's about half of what you had
    a cycle ago. And the playing field is relatively even."

    South Dakota's Johnson, Minnesota's Paul Wellstone and Missouri's
    Jean Carnahan are the Democratic senators in most analysts' list of
    tossup states. New Hampshire's Bob Smith, Colorado's Wayne Allard and
    Tim Hutchinson in Arkansas are the Republicans most often mentioned.

    Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election this year - 20
    Republican and 14 Democratic.

    Republicans are defending more seats, but that hasn't given Democrats
    an overall advantage because many of the seats are in heavily Republican
    states. Many of the hottest races are in the Midwest and South - in
    states won by President Bush in 2000.

    Among the additional Democratic seats eyed by Republicans: Sen. Max
    Cleland in Georgia, where GOP Rep. Saxby Chambliss poses a threat; Sen.
    Tom Harkin in Iowa likely to face GOP Rep. Greg Ganske; and Sen. Mary
    Landrieu in Louisiana, though she appears less vulnerable in recent
    months.

    "We've done a remarkable job in the last year of making sure our
    incumbents are up, running, ready and prepared," said Sen. Patty Murray
    of Washington, chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
    Committee.

    Three Republican senators are retiring: Jesse Helms in North
    Carolina, Strom Thurmond in South Carolina and Phil Gramm in Texas.

    These three states went for Bush in 2000, but the Carolinas have
    Democratic governors as well as interesting Senate candidates and offer
    a chance for competitive races.

    In North Carolina, former presidential candidate Elizabeth Dole is
    the best-known Republican running. Onetime Clinton chief of staff
    Erskine Bowles is the best-known Democrat.

    In South Carolina, GOP Rep. Lindsey Graham, who made his name during
    the Clinton impeachment hearings, will be favored. But he could get a
    surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Alex Sanders, a colorful
    former lawmaker and college president.

    The euphoria Democrats experienced in May after taking the Senate
    with Vermont Sen. James Jeffords' switch from GOP to independent faded
    through the summer as Republicans scored candidate recruiting successes.

    Thune in South Dakota, St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman in Minnesota and
    former congressman Jim Talent in Missouri were the prize GOP recruits.

    But Republicans failed to convince former Gov. Marc Racicot, now the
    incoming GOP national chairman, to challenge Montana's Democratic Sen.
    Max Baucus.

    And in New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli's hand was
    strengthened when Republicans didn't come up with a big-name candidate
    and prosecutors decided not to pursue campaign finance charges against
    him.

    Still, Democrats have been scrambling for a winning strategy in
    recent months. They were all set at the end of summer to press their
    case on the fading economy and domestic issues like Social Security and
    health care.

    But the political landscape shifted dramatically after the terrorist
    attacks. Issues favoring Republicans like defense and foreign policy
    moved to the forefront as Democrats' top issues like Social Security and
    health care receded.

    Democrats were alarmed when recent polls suggested the GOP had gained
    a slight advantage on handling the economy - the issue Democrats planned
    to make a campaign centerpiece.

    Soon after that, Daschle launched the assault on Bush's economic
    policies. The Democratic strategy could backfire, said Dan Allen of the
    Republicans' senatorial committee.

    "If people are losing jobs, they want action and not partisan
    rhetoric," Allen said.
   
    The stakes of Daschle's economic gambit are high for Democrats.
    Republicans have a slight advantage in the number of top Democratic
    targets, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg suggested.

    "Democrats have lots of good target races in the second and third
    tier," he said, mentioning Republican senators Gordon Smith of Oregon
    and Susan Collins of Maine. "But they need a breeze at their back."